Development trend of titanium industry in the second half of the year

The demand for aerospace titanium materials drives the demand for high-end titanium materials, and the demand structure of titanium materials continues to be optimized.

Statistics of three key listed companies of high-end titanium materials: in 2020, the total operating revenue was 8.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 813 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.8%; The total net profit excluding non parent company was RMB 656 million, with a year-on-year increase of 83.4%. In the first quarter of 2021, the total operating revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%; The total net profit attributable to the parent company was 255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 321.4%; The total net profit excluding non parent company was 233 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 397.8%. The growth of earnings in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 far exceeded the growth of revenue in the same period.

Valuation of three key listed companies of high-end titanium materials: as of June 11, 2021, the average value of PE (TTM) was 54 times and the median value was 52 times; It is predicted that the average value of PE (2021) is 46 times and the median value is 45 times.

Titanium has the characteristics of high melting point, small specific gravity, high specific strength, good toughness, fatigue resistance, corrosion resistance, low thermal conductivity, good resistance to high and low temperatures, and low stress under rapid cooling and heating conditions. Its commercial value has been recognized since the 1950s. Titanium is mostly combined with other elements such as iron, aluminum, vanadium or molybdenum to produce high-strength light alloys, which are used in aviation Aerospace, military industry and other high-tech fields. With the continuous promotion of titanium to chemical industry, petroleum, electric power, seawater desalination, construction, agricultural food, medicine, daily necessities and other industries, titanium has attracted more and more attention. It is known as "the third metal", "space metal", "marine metal" and "universal metal", because it is an indispensable strategic material to improve the level of national defense equipment, Also known as "modern metal" and "strategic metal".

According to the structure and composition, titanium alloys can be divided into α Titanium alloy β Titanium alloys and α+β Titanium alloy. China is represented by the prefix TA, TB and TC of metal material brand α、β as well as α+β Titanium alloy.

According to the physical form, titanium alloy can be divided into plate, strip, bar, pipe, wire, profile, casting and forging.

The production process of titanium material is mainly to melt and cast sponge titanium to prepare titanium ingot, and then forge, extrude, tie or stretch the titanium ingot to obtain titanium or titanium alloy bars, pipes, plates, cakes, rings and other products for downstream use. The yield of titanium is low, and a large number of scrap materials are produced in the processing process, resulting in high production cost. At present, China needs about 1.7 tons of sponge titanium raw materials for 1 ton of titanium materials.

The production of titanium processed materials is mainly concentrated in China, the United States, Russia, Japan and other countries. In 2010, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest titanium producer, but most of China's titanium materials are used in the industrial field, and the technical content is relatively low, while the United States is mainly high-end titanium materials such as aviation titanium materials. In 2018, China's titanium production reached 63400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.42%.

The demand for aerospace titanium materials increased rapidly, and the proportion of high-end titanium materials increased significantly.

In recent years, China's demand for aerospace titanium materials has maintained a rapid growth. According to the data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the consumption of aerospace titanium materials in 2015-2018 was 6862 tons, 8519 tons, 8986 tons and 10295 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41%, 24%, 5% and 14.6% respectively. This is closely related to the rapid development of China's aerospace industry. Yun-20 is in mass production, and Taihang engine is in stable mass production. In 2018, China's chemical titanium consumption was 26100 tons. With the rapid growth of China's aerospace titanium consumption, it is expected to exceed the titanium consumption in the chemical field in the future.

The proportion of consumption in high-end titanium application fields (aerospace, shipbuilding and Marine Engineering) has increased significantly.

In 2011, China's high-end titanium alloy consumption was 6143 tons, accounting for 13.8% of China's total titanium alloy consumption; In 2018, China's high-end titanium alloy consumption was 14029 tons, accounting for 24.4% of China's total titanium alloy consumption.

At present, the construction of independent civil aircraft pedigree in China has begun to take.

shape:

Regional aircraft Xinzhou series (MA60, ma600, ma700) and turbofan regional aircraft ARJ21; The trunk aircraft C919 is about to enter mass production, and the long-range wide body passenger plane cr929 is also under development.

The market expects that the titanium consumption of C919 fuselage accounts for 9.3% of the weight, and the titanium consumption of each C919 fuselage is expected to be about 4 tons.

Because titanium alloy is used to manufacture aircraft engine and body, it can effectively improve the thrust weight ratio of engine and body mechanism efficiency. In recent years, the proportion of titanium alloy materials used in military aircraft is increasing. The consumption of titanium alloy structural parts of F-16 of the third generation combat aircraft is about 3%, and the consumption of F / a18-elf and Su-27 has reached more than 15%; The amount of titanium alloy structural parts in the fourth generation combat aircraft F-22 accounts for 41% of the total weight of the fuselage structure, and the titanium content of F119 engine is 39%. The fuselage of SR-71 reconnaissance aircraft is almost entirely composed of titanium alloy.